Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is an innovative approach that uses modern weather forecasting technology and enhanced monitoring to selectively retain or release water from reservoirs in anticipation of future conditions. FIRO leverages improved forecasts of atmospheric rivers, which are responsible for nearly half of all water supply and over 95% of all flood damages in California. FIRO is being explored at Seven Oaks Dam to maximize groundwater recharge and downstream habitat while ensuring flood risk management objectives are met or exceeded. The FIRO study will evaluate strategically managing releases from the dam in concert with downstream channel modifications to restore alluvial fan habitat for endangered species.

Seven Oaks Dam was constructed for flood risk management but is not authorized to capture water for groundwater recharge. Although the existing operation of the dam provides some incidental water conservation benefits, it may be possible to increase the opportunity to conserve more water with improved forecast skills. FIRO will assess options for adjusting the timing of releases to optimize recharge while maintaining if not enhancing flood risk management. 

The Seven Oaks FIRO Steering Committee has begun a FIRO study to assess if forecasts of atmospheric rivers can be used to inform flexible reservoir operations at Seven Oaks Dam to optimize multiple benefits. Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of concentrated water that, when they make landfall, can produce massive amounts of rain or snow. In the winter of 2022-2023, 17 atmospheric rivers affected California and produced the majority of snow at Big Bear (up to 240 inches) and over 14 inches of rain in the Santa Ana Basin. Accurately predicting the location, duration and runoff volume anticipated due to occurrence of atmospheric river storms is foundational to FIRO. 

FIRO at Seven Oaks Dam is a collaborative research and operations partnership consisting of an interdisciplinary team of scientists, water managers, dam operators, and environmental experts. Water management needs inform the research required to optimize operations of the dam and results of this research are used for improving water conservation, managing flood risk, and improving downstream habitat. The Steering Committee represents these interests in an integrated way and members work together to produce the studies needed to assess FIRO operations.

The Steering Committee co-chairs are Dr. Cary Talbot (FIRO Program National Lead of the Engineer Research and Development Center, USACE), Dr. F. Martin Ralph (Director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego), and Heather Dyer (CEO/ General Manager of San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District). 

For more information on FIRO, visit the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes website or contact Greg Woodside at GregW@SBVMWD.com.